Northern Ireland after Blair: the Challenge of Devolution

The Northern Ireland problem was arguably the most time-consuming of all the domestic political issues to which Tony Blair directed his attention. It found a place at the outset in new Labour’s package of constitutional reforms, and was closely related to—but distinct from—the programme of territorial devolution in Great Britain. This paper analyses the painful stages through which the devolution programme proceeded in Northern Ireland, drawing attention to the contrast with the much smoother Scottish and Welsh experiences, and seeks to account for its unusual character. It uses survey data to highlight three major dimensions that distinguish Northern Ireland from other regions of the United Kingdom. First, the spread of attitudes towards the relationship with London is much wider and more complex than in Scotland and Wales: Northern Irish Catholics and Protestants alike are divided between those who favour full integration with Great Britain, those who wish to leave, and a range of intermediate positions. Second, there is a “second front” in Northern Ireland: the relationship with Dublin. Here, once again, attitudes span a wide range, and they cannot automatically be inferred from religious background. The third distinctive characteristic of Northern Ireland is its bicommunal character; the dynamic but mutually suspicious character of the relationship between Catholics and Protestants adds a further layer to disagreements over the shape of devolved government. In addition to other evidence, survey data reveals the complexity of the Northern Ireland problem, and highlights the extent of the challenge faced by the Labour government is pursuing a solution—a challenge which, against the odds, Tony Blair proved capable of confronting much more effectively than any of his predecessors.